![]() Taryon (8) again seems to have the worst luck, as he is the sole member of VM above 5%, at 6.4%. Like in the average natural rolls, this is likely a result of the rolls we don’t hear (Percy’s misfires, disregarded due to advantage, simply saying “fail”). In general, Vox Machina’s natural 1 rates are much lower than what you’d expect from statistics (5%), and there are over 100 fewer natural 1s than natural 20s rolled over the course of 100 episodes at 333. ![]() Trinket and Tary are just high enough that we feel comfortable using their rates. Small numbers tend to skew statistics like these (though we’re pretty sure Wil Wheaton’s natural 1 rate of 20% would still be about 20% if Thorbir ever returned). Note: We’re not counting Doty’s rate here, because of his low number of rolls. VM’s newest member, Taryon, has both the fewest natural 20s (5) and the lowest natural 20 rate (4%). She currently sits at 26 natural 20s, which comes to 6.37% over her 408 total rolls. Since her return after the Nine Hells, she was slowly creeping up on Percy, and even passed him for a couple episodes before he retook the lead in episode 100. What’s even more interesting here is Pike. Percy has the second most natural 20s (86), and has about 400 fewer rolls than Vax, so he leads VM in natural 20 rates at 6.47%. Vax has rolled the most of these (89), but, because of his high number of total rolls, his rate of natural 20s is roughly what you’d expect at 5.2%. There have been a total of 463 natural 20s over 100 episodes. Next, what role does each Vox Machina member play in the critical count? (Did you see what we did there?. This may actually explain why Grog’s is so high- he gets advantage on most of his rolls now, and we don’t hear those lower rolls. The fact that all of Vox Machina is skewed slightly higher than the statistical average of 10.5 is also likely from the rolls we don’t hear- they don’t always announce the disregarded rolls for advantage, for instance. By the same token, since Taliesin doesn’t always announce what he rolled when one of Percy’s guns misfires, Percy’s average should be skewed slightly higher, though to a lesser extent. Unless Liam announced what his natural roll was on these skills, the best we can do is assume 10 when calculating natural rolls, so Vax’s average is likely skewed slightly higher than it should be. Here, Vax and Grog lead, at 12.18 and 12.19, though Vax comes with a caveat: Reliable Talent means that for any rolls he is proficient in, his minimum roll (before modifiers) is a 10, outside of a natural 1. Since we know most everyone’s skill modifiers, we can also calculate their average natural roll over the course of the show. ![]()
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